Module Goal

By applying an understanding of the physical processes and conceptual models of mesoscale convective systems, forecasters will be able to identify the potential for convection to organize upscale, and to anticipate and monitor system evolution and attendant severe weather.

Performance Objectives

1. Describe the roles of CAPE and vertical wind shear in organizing and maintaining a mesoscale convective system.

2. Given existing convection, along with an updated hodograph and sounding, describe the potential for upscale organization and potential severity and longevity.

3. Apply conceptual models of squall lines and bow echoes (including 3D flow structure, evolution, characteristic system motion, cell growth pattern, and attendant severe weather) to monitor MCSs in order to issue timely watches and warnings.

To most effectively learn from this module, you should have a basic knowledge of

• The life cycle of a single thunderstorm cell
• Conceptual models of ordinary convective cells, multiple cell systems, and supercells
• The basic equations of motion applied to dynamic meteorology

The module assumes that learners have basic skills in

• Reading and interpreting a sounding using a skew T-log p diagram
• Interpreting a hodograph
• Interpreting radar reflectivity data and Doppler velocity imagery

In addition, forecasters should be familiar with the content covered in the COMET CD-ROM module, Anticipating Convective Storm Structure and Evolution. Specifically, forecasters should be able to

1. Anticipate possible convective storm structures and evolutions for a given event based on an analysis of the storm environment

1.1. Determine probable storm structures and evolutions that will result from the interrelationships of controlling physical processes (updrafts, downdrafts, updraft/shear interactions, cold pool/shear interactions)

1.2. Use a thermodynamic diagram and hodograph to assess buoyancy, mean wind, wind shear, storm motion, and storm-relative winds

2. Describe conceptual models of ordinary cells, multiple cell systems, and supercells in terms of their three-dimensional flow structure, characteristic motion, cell growth patterns, typical severe weather, and typical CAPE and shear values

3. Identify storm structures and determine general storm types using modern radar and other data

Return to Top