Introduction
Outline
North American Climate Variability as a Result of ENSO
Overview
50+ year ENSO History & El Niño in the Tropical Pacific
El Niño is El Niño!
El Niño Impact on Tropical Precipitation
El Niño Extra-tropical Impacts
El Niño Northern Pacific Impacts
El Niño Northern Plains Impacts
El Niño SST Variability
La Niña SST Variability
El Niño Winter Variability
La Niña Winter Variability
Interpreting N. American Climate Variability Using Models
Interpreting GCM Model Results
Questions
Looking at this model simulation results, how should you interpret the observed case-to-case variability in the anomalies during observed El Niño's?
Seasonally Varying Sensitivity to ENSO
The Seasonal Forecast Problem
Impacts of El Niño Variability on U.S. Precipitation in Winter
Ocean Impacts Beyond ENSO
The Warm Pool Is Getting Warmer
Impacts of Warming the Tropical Indian Ocean
Summary
Links
NOAA-CIRES Climate Prediction Center
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Division
https://www.cgd.ucar.edu/
References
Bates, G. T., M. P. Hoerling, and A. Kumar, 2001: Central U.S. Springtime
Precipitation
Extremes: Teleconnections and Relationships with Sea Surface Temperatures.
J. Climate, 14,
3751-3766.
Barsugli, J. J., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 2002: Global Atmospheric Sensitivity
to Tropical SST
Anomalies Throughout the Indo-Pacific Basin. J. Climate, 15,
3427-3442.
Compo, G. P., P. D. Sardeshmukh, and C. Penland, 2001: Changes of Subseasonal
Variability
Associated with El Niño. J. Climate, 14,
3356-3374.
Diaz, H. F., M. P. Hoerling, and J. K. Eischeid, 2001: ENSO Variability,
Teleconnections, and
Climate Change. Int. J. Climatol., 21, 1845-1862.
Hoerling, M. P. and A. Kumar, 2002: Atmospheric Response Patterns Associated
wth Tropical
Forcing, J. Climate, 15, 2184-2203.
Hoerling, M. P., and A. Kumar, 2003: Seasonal and Interannual Weather
Prediction.
Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, J. R. Holton, J. Pyle,
and J. A. Curry (Eds.),
Academic Press, 2562-2567.
Hoerling, M. P., A. Kumar, and T. Xu, 2001: Robustness of the Nonlinear
Climate Response
to ENSO's Extreame Phases. J. Climate, 14,
1277-1293
Kumar, A., and M. P. Hoerling, 2003: The nature and causes for the
delayed atmosheric
response to El Niño. J. Climate, in press.
Sun, D.-Z., 2003: A Possible Effect of an Increase in the Warm-pool
SST on the Magnitude
of El Niño Warming. J. Climate, 16,
185-205.
Contributors
Sponsors
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
National Weather Service (NWS)
Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command (NMOC)
Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)
National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS)
National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS)
Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC)
Principal Science Advisor
Dr. Marty Hoerling — NOAA/Climate Diagnostics Center
Project Lead
Wendy Schreiber-Abshire — UCAR/COMET
Multimedia Authoring
Seth Lamos — UCAR/COMET
Dan Riter — UCAR/COMET
Audio Editing/Production
Seth Lamos — UCAR/COMET
Audio Narration
Dr. Marty Hoerling — NOAA/Climate Diagnostics Center
Computer Graphics/Interface Design
Heidi Godsil — UCAR/COMET
Software Testing/Quality Assurance
Michael Smith — UCAR/COMET
Copyright Administration
Lorrie Fyffe — UCAR/COMET
Data Provided by
AMS
NOAA/CDC
COMET HTML Integration Team 2021
Tim Alberta — Project Manager
Dolores Kiessling — Project Lead
Steve Deyo — Graphic Artist
Ariana Kiessling — Web Developer
Gary Pacheco — Lead Web Developer
David Russi — Translations
Tyler Winstead — Web Developer
COMET Staff:
Director
Dr. Timothy Spangler
Deputy Director
Dr. Joe Lamos
Meteorologist Resources Group Head
Dr. Greg Byrd
Business Manager/Supervisor of Administration
Elizabeth Lessard
Administration
Lorrie Fyffe
Bonnie Slagel
Penina Frager
Graphics/Media Production
Steve Deyo
Heidi Godsil
Seth Lamos
Dan Riter
Hardware/Software Support and Programming
Tim Alberta (Supervisor)
David Ellis (Student)
James Hamm
Karl Hanzel
Ken Kim
Mark Mulholland
Max Parris (Student)
Carl Whitehurst
Instructional Design
Patrick Parrish (Supervisor)
Dr. Alan Bol
Dr. Vickie Johnson
Bruce Muller
Dr. Sherwood Wang
Meteorologists
Dr. William Bua
Patrick Dills
Kevin Fuell
Jonathan Heyl (Student)
Dr. Stephen Jascourt
Dolores Kiessling
Heather McIntyre (Student)
Wendy Schreiber-Abshire
Dr. Doug Wesley
Software Testing/Quality Assurance
Michael Smith (Coordinator)
National Weather Service COMET Branch
Anthony Mostek (National Satellite Training Coordinator)
Brian Motta
Dr. Robert Rozumalski (SOO Science and Training Resource Coordinator
[SOO/STRC])
Meteorological Service of Canada Visiting Meteorologists
Peter Lewis
Garry Toth