Medium Range Forecast Exercise for Tallahassee, FL:
A Prototype for Forecasting Along the Gulf Coast in Fall

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Introduction: Goals and Background

Part I: Formulation of Day-5 Forecast for Tallahassee, Florida (TLH) for 28 October 2003

Section 1a
Synoptic setting, 0000 UTC 23 October 2003

Section 1b
Use of the 5-Wave Graphic

Section 1c
The Eastern Pacific Tropical System

Section 2
Inspection of NWP Model Forecasts

Section 3
Consideration of GFS MEX MOS

Section 4
Day-5 Forecast for Tallahassee

Part II: GFS Model Verification for 28 October 2003

Part III: Observed Weather at TLH on 28 October 2003

Part IV: Concluding Remarks