The radar at 12 UTC shows a long rainband running through the middle of the area where the model analysis and the raobs
disagreed.
What sort of clue might this provide? What data could you look at to see
if your suspicion is on the right track? Stop and think about it for a minute,
then click "ready" when ready to proceed—there's more on this page!
What about the possibility of evaporative cooling in the vicinity of the
rainband? It might be in the model—maybe the model first guess has some dry
air and overrunning rain in this area or convection causing cooling at 700
hPa, or maybe it's really happening and there are some other observations.
Let's take a look at the wet bulb temperatures (green) in the raob reports
for different levels around 700 hPa. Raob dry bulb temperatures are in blue.
At 650 hPa and 675 hPa, wet bulb temperatures are cool behind a wind shift to northerly winds north of the Dallas area.
And, notice below, that the global model analysis also has a cool area over northeast Texas and some potentially cool
air poised just to the north over all of Oklahoma.
