This early-winter case demonstrates the use of the short-range ensemble forecast system (SREF) in advance of a potential winter storm in North Carolina. The case features uncertainty in storm track, depth and strength of cold air damming, and the timing of QPF and the precipitation type.
Click on the links in the menu at the left to navigate through this case. The case will pick up from the day 3 MREF forecast and then present data from the SREFs at day 2 and day 2 for various SREF variables. You will be asked a couple of questions about your forecast for a specific CWA in North Carolina based on the day 2 and day 1 data provided. Links to descriptions of the various ensemble products used in the case are provided (click the column headers). For more information about these products and ensemble prediction systems, see the Ensemble Explained module.
To get oriented to the case situation, please click on the day 3 MREFs link in the menu.