This early-winter case demonstrates the use of the short-range ensemble forecast system (SREF) in advance of a potential winter storm in the Washington DC area. The case features uncertainty in storm track, depth and strength of cold air damming, and the timing of QPF and the precipitation type.
Click on the links in the menu at the left to navigate through this case. The case will pick up from the day 3 MREF forecast and then present data from the SREFs at day 2 and day 1 for various SREF variables. You will be asked a couple of questions about your forecast for the Sterling VA WFOs CWA (which covers Washington DC and the surrounding areas) based on the day 2 and day 1 data provided.
To get oriented to the case situation, please click on the day 3 MREFs link in the menu.