This is the second in a set of three cases on Tropical Storm Allison, which spread a long swath of flooding rains from east Texas through southern New England during the two-week period from 5 June through 18 June 2001. In Houston, TX and suburban Philadelphia, PA, a number of deaths also resulted.
In this second case, we examine the possible role of initial conditions, resolution, and precipitation processes in the predictability of Allison's movements from LA to NC during the period from June 11 to 14, 2001 in the Eta-22 and the Eta-10 ("threats" run, see graphic below). During this period, the circulation of Allison maintained itself as it moved east-northeastward from Louisiana to coastal North Carolina, even though it was over land. We use the 18 UTC 11 June 2001 forecast to illustrate these points.
By Dr. Bill Bua, UCAR/COMET
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