Dynamic Feature Identification

Slide 1:
Introducing the Satellite Palette

Phil Chadwick, September 2007

Hello. I'm Phil Chadwick, I'm a meteorologist with Environment Canada, and sometimes people call me "Phil the Forecaster".
 
Welcome to the Satellite Palette – the Satellite Palette is supposed to be a fun, interactive series of modules. It's designed to turn forecasters into satellite meteorologists sometime during the analysis and diagnosis phase of the forecast cycle. Clouds and weather patterns are always available in satellite imagery allowing meteorologist to do in-depth analysis and diagnosis of the forecast concern of the day. This type of forecasting can be done long before the weather turns into something significant. Anticipation is the best type of forecasting; reaction, well, that's reacting.

Slide 2:
The Satellite Palette – A Library

The "Satellite Palette" is a library. It contains conceptual models which contain dynamic features. And they can be used to analyze, diagnose and better understand the real and numerical atmospheres. This knowledge can then be used to make better predictions that are in better agreement with the real and future atmosphere.

The Satellite Palette is an art. The art part relies on the human ability to comprehend complex patterns - size, shape, shadow, tone, texture and interaction even. The human can assimilate this information into an understanding of the atmosphere.

The real world is full of patterns and shapes. From the very first time that we crawled out of the cave, humans have developed and refined extraordinary skill at understanding what patterns can tell them.  In part, this is how humans have climbed to the top of the evolutionary ladder.

These skills are not well replicated by machines.

The Satellite Palette is also a science. The science part provides the basic tools for the forecasters to practice the science of meteorology on the satellite data. Application of the science has allowed the more thorough use of the satellite data that continues to blossom in both volume and type as well as increase in both temporal and spatial resolution.

A very important caveat here: the atmosphere is complicated. It is a three-dimensional fluid comprised of a multitude of complex, interacting, multi-scale swirls of various gases with a wide range of concentrations bound by gravity to a rotating oblate spheroid covered by an assortment of varied and complex terrain on an axis that changes orientation to the sun while in an elliptical orbit at varying velocities that changes its distance from a source of energy that varies in output.

You know, it really doesn't get any more complicated than this!

Slide 3:
Meteorology – An Art and Science

The art of meteorology started with the surface analysis. Analyzing a map is more than drawing lines; it's the first thing I do whenever I start a shift. During the process, the meteorologist synthesizes the patterns and shapes into a mental picture of the real atmosphere – the weather.

The same patterns and shapes are in the numerical atmosphere…   and the satellite atmosphere.

The patterns and shapes that artists use to convey meanings are also in the atmosphere. This is my painting of a double deformation zone and you can deduce all the weather that's occurring in the past, the present, and the future just from this painting.

The conceptual models of the Satellite Palette allow the analysis and diagnosis of the location and relative intensities of the dynamic features. These are the same dynamic features found in the numerical atmosphere. This allows the very important validation of the numerical atmosphere and improves our understanding of the real one in turn.

Slide 4:
The Real Atmosphere

The satellite is reality. It is the real atmosphere.  We can even view this from the top down, as with the satellite view or from the ground from my front door looking east at sunrise.

We're looking at a high-level deformation zone that contains the cirrostratus, one that contains the altostratus, and a low-level deformation that is the leading edge of nimbostratus with rain on the way.

The challenge is to look at the real world with imagination, creativity and awe and to try to understand this majesty just a little bit better than we do now.

Slide 5:
Library of Conceptual Models

The Satellite Palette is a library. It gives the tools to empower pattern recognition skills – that's the art.
It gives the conceptual models and dynamic features to better analyze and diagnose the real atmosphere – that's the science.
It allows us to validate the numerical atmosphere and identify what needs fixing. And then we fix it. And doing that as a meteorologist we should be having fun.

Now very importantly, the Satellite Palette does not pretend to explain all things at all scales at all situations.

The simplified dynamic features and conceptual models are a place to start and make efficient use of our ability to assimilate and process large amounts of qualitative information which we can get from the satellite data.

Take care.