http://www.meted.ucar.edu/metedbb/forums/show/3.page JForum - http://www.jforum.net
1. New hybrid sigma-pressure coordinate system
2. Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation used for data assimilation (analysis done in grid point space, rather than in spectral/wave number space).

The graphics can be found at:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/

for the parallel, and just replace "nwpara" with "nwprod" in the URL above.

Bill]]> http://www.meted.ucar.edu/metedbb/posts/preList/59/196.page http://www.meted.ucar.edu/metedbb/posts/preList/59/196.page GMT http://www.meted.ucar.edu/metedbb/posts/preList/58/195.page http://www.meted.ucar.edu/metedbb/posts/preList/58/195.page GMT
The Gridded MOS is now being run on an experimental basis over the full CONUS.

Check out

http://www.weather.gov/mdl/synop/gmos.html and click on "experimental MOS graphics as part of NDFD" in the middle column.

Training on Gridded MOS will be forthcoming before summer's end.

Bill]]> http://www.meted.ucar.edu/metedbb/posts/preList/50/175.page http://www.meted.ucar.edu/metedbb/posts/preList/50/175.page GMT
I hope the team addressed can assist the field on the following...

NCEP data feed upgrades (but regressing for some users) are occurring that are currently jeapordizing improved use of ensembles at field level (non-AWIPS/external customers from students to private sector to NWS customers at home).

Collective wisdom, to which I am not privy, probably sees much improvement in the near future. We all look forward to this!

However, one thing I'd like to see, is a microsoft like upgrade from NCEP (or something of that nature), for all the users who heavily depend on ftp files, so that these developers dont have to do so much repetitive time consuming work to keep updating to match the ncep data delivery framework, allowing these leaders to move-on to other research.

This ftp file problem has been occurring for over a month now and is worsening.

I am seeking greater consideration for those who rederive from the good graces of NOAA NCEP modeling.

Off the top of my head, I think of internationally known and award inning developers - Rich Grumm-WFO CTP and Bob Hart-FSU, to state just two that I rely heavily upon and I suspect others who've developed valued research techniques from their baseline efforts.

Yet, I dont know if they've been kept in the loop on how to accomodate the necessary changes going on at NCEP.

Our field offices are also in part dependent on these localized (USA) ensemble links working properly with teletraining for their products for field use.

There is concern that if NCEP possibly gets rid of small thinned manageable files, the datafeed will be uselessly long for operational use.

Is there any glimmer of hope for a big fix to this problem?

Walter Drag
Off-duty but a customer of

http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/ensembles2/index.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/confidence/
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Perhaps the 12z is better at capturing significant warming trends in the longer ranges than the 00z...it has certainly anecdotally seemed like the "older" 00z MEX never quite captured significant temperature swings to the full degree.]]> http://www.meted.ucar.edu/metedbb/posts/preList/14/34.page http://www.meted.ucar.edu/metedbb/posts/preList/14/34.page GMT
The ensemble prediction system (EPS) [url=http://meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2/ens_matrix/index.htm]matrix[/url] is now available for the NCEP short- and medium-range ensemble forecasts. It was a long time coming. It provides one-stop information of EPS configurations, including how the EPS is created, the NWP model used for create the EPS forecasts, and post-processing and verification information.

Bill]]> http://www.meted.ucar.edu/metedbb/posts/preList/13/33.page http://www.meted.ucar.edu/metedbb/posts/preList/13/33.page GMT
The east coast has been arid from ern nc to sne last 4 weeks including 16+ days in a row here without meas rain...yet nam and gfs dewpoint forecasts are wayyyyy tooo high during the afternoons in return flow behind the sfc high and usually too low just ahead of the cf....

I saw a soil moisture contribution graphic for the next week, and it looks far overdone.

We at kbox lower mos dewpoints during mid aftn from the top of the bl as viewed in bufkit or tsecs.

bottom line, why cant the ncep models do a better job with dewpoints which anecdotally in my mind now rank as one worst predictive elements of the model output.

This is troubling, especially since dewpoints are no longer the throwaway mos guidance we once thought... having a huge bearing on Value ADDED fire weather outlooks... as well as other applications I suspect such as air quality. I get calls from researchers on rh. Convective sounding applications.

We grid edit dewpoints but we tend not to modify the guidance often enough during the transition season...or just dont think its important enough.

any comments on additional approaches?

I presume EMC is very aware of the shortcomings of the td fcsts in mos and the models (both gfs and nam).

Just woeful the past several days (21 hr fcst 10f in error ydy from the lowest avbl 00z/30 ncep mos /fwc,met,mav/ guidance for the bulk of southern new england (sne) and ydys 45 hr fcst tds for today were in the 40s to near 50 (00z/30 fcst)!---not going to happen aznd a probable day 2 error of 8-13 degrees too wet!). we know we have a + anomaly pattern right now, yet we think the "top" of the bl is modeled very well but degrades toward the sfc on any well mixed day.

Probably most on this board agree that considerable improvement in this element would give us even better model qpf results...

in the end, we wonder if the models are mixing out the boundary layer (bl) properly to get good sfc dews and resultant bl sounding.

A byproduct of this poor element, is time devoted to dewpoint grid editing. This is an element with more importance than once thought...

HPC I suspect knows what we are taliking about with regard to the dews fcst days that they offer us in day 4-7.


Thanks for considering,

Walt Drag
Taunton-Boston (KBOX)
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Over the next several months, a major overhaul of the ensemble prediction system is being run in parallel to the operational MREF, and is scheduled for implementation on 30 May 2006. Included will be an increase in ensemble membership from 11 (00z) or 10 (06, 12, 18z) to 15 members for all 4 daily cycles. Also, the method for developing perturbations in the initial conditions will be changed from the [url:http://meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu1/ensemble/2_2_2.htm]breeding method[/url] to something called the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF). This method, along with the increase in ensemble membership by 50%, should increase the spread in the medium-range ensemble, thus allowing for a better accounting of all possible forecast outcomes and the potential for extreme events.

I'm hopeful that we can use this time to discuss the behavior of the new ensemble system. I'll post here when the web-based parallel MREF graphics are available for comparison to those from the operational system.

As we come into springtime, severe weather comes to the fore. We can also use this forum to discuss GFS behavior during the severe weather season. Other issues that have come up in the past include:

[list]Forecast consistency and data assimilation[/list]
[list]Grid-scale convective bombs[/list]
[list]Biases in sensible weather elements, such as precipitation and temperature[/list]
[list]Tropical storms and hurricane forecasts[/list]

As information on new implementations becomes available, I'll also post it here. When graphics or data from real-time parallels are available, I'll let you know where to find them.

In the meantime, let's make this forum work for us! Let me know what you want to talk about, learn about, and teach [b][i][u]me[/u][/i][/b] about!]]> http://www.meted.ucar.edu/metedbb/posts/preList/9/19.page http://www.meted.ucar.edu/metedbb/posts/preList/9/19.page GMT