Houston TX 6/19 rains...how did the NAM NMM WRF do vs NAM Eta?

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 22/06/2006 08:48:02

All --

I'll add this topic for the forum, even though the event took place the day before the NAM WRF NMM became operational.

I've attached some graphics as an example that came up in a discussion I had with some forecasters on Tuesday; how well did the NAM NMMWRF do compared to the NAM Eta with the flooding rains in Houston TX on 6/19. These are from the [url http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpverif/daily/]Meso Modeling Branch precip verification webpage[/url]. Note that there really isn't much of a qualitative difference between the two, though it would appear that the NAM WRF-NMM had a little bit better intensity and placement. The Hi Res window versions of the WRF (with the NCAR/ARW/EM dynamics and the NCEP NMM dynamics) for the central region (not attached, but in the web page) produce prodigious amounts of precipitation; in fact, TOO much of it, but that would be a big heads up for the forecasters.

If you check out the webpage, you'll see that the GFS had the most precip. and the most consistent and accurate forecast as far out as 72 hours!

Bill