This matrix contains a wealth of information about several important models
and software tools used for wildland fire modeling, management, and prediction. As part of the Advanced Fire Weather Forecasters Course (S-591), this resource shows how weather information is used in fire models
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BehavePlus
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FARSITE
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FlamMap
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FireFamily Plus
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Model/Tool Descriptions
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Summary
A software application for analysis and prediction of wildland fire behavior. (For
details, click the "+" button.)
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Summary
A software application for analysis and prediction of wildland fire behavior.
Purpose
Modeling and prediction of wildland fire behavior and effects under various environmental conditions.
Description
The BehavePlus fire modeling system predicts wildland fire behavior for fire management purposes. It calculates fire behavior characteristics from a single point. BehavePlus is designed for use by trained, professional wildland fire planners and managers familiar with the interaction of fuels, weather and topography in wildfire situations for making fire and land management decisions.
Further Information
BehavePlus Website
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Summary
A geo-spatial fire behavior and growth simulator. (For
details, click the "+" button.)
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Summary
A geo-spatial fire behavior and growth simulator.
Purpose
Two-dimensional modeling of wildland fire behavior and growth under heterogeneous conditions and over extended time periods.
Description
FARSITE is a fire behavior and growth simulator used by Fire Behavior Analysts. It incorporates spatial information on topography, fuels and weather to simulate 2-dimensional fire growth. FARSITE is designed for use by trained, professional wildland fire planners and managers familiar with the interaction of fuels, weather and topography in wildfire situations for making fire and land management decisions.
Further Information:
FARSITE
Website
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Summary
A fire behavior mapping and analysis program. (For
details, click the "+" button.)
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Summary
A fire behavior mapping and analysis program.
Purpose
Geospatial fire behavior modeling and mapping application for fire operations as well as fire planning.
Description
FlamMap software creates raster maps of potential fire behavior
characteristics and environmental conditions over an entire FARSITE
landscape for one instant in time given a set of weather, wind, and fuel moisture conditions.
These raster maps can be viewed in FlamMap or exported for use in a GIS, image, or word processor.
Further Information:
FlamMap Website
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Summary
A database of fire observation and rating records. (For
details, click the "+" button.)
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Summary
A software application that interfaces with an MS Access database of historical weather observations and fire occurrence records.
Purpose
Regeneration and comprehensive analysis of historical fire danger indexes to describe an area’s fire weather climatology, and evaluate the relationship of fire danger to an area’s fire business. Provides for maximum effectiveness for interpretation of National Fire Danger Rating System and generates Fire Danger Rating Pocket Cards required in the 30-Mile abatement plan.
Description
FireFamily Plus is a database tool that helps experienced fire managers analyze historical daily fire weather observations and compute fire danger indices based on the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) or the Canadian Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS). Fire occurrence data can also be analyzed and cross referenced with the weather data to determine the critical levels for staffing and fire danger for an area. FireFamily Plus can calculate specific fuel moisture or fire weather values that constitute extreme, high, moderate or low fire danger, and the likelihood of occurrence. Weather data can be exported from FireFamily Plus and used as input for other fire models.
Further Information:
Fire
Family Plus Website
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Fire Behavior
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- fire growth simulation
- includes topography, fuel, weather, and wind inputs
- incorporates surface fire, crown fire, spotting, post-frontal (fire front) combustion, and fire acceleration models
- fire behavior modeling (flame length, spread rate, fireline intensity, crown fire activity, etc.)
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Fire Effects
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Fire Planning
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Excellent tool for gaming 'what if' scenarios such as:
- If the fire spots and gets established in a certain location, what would be the likely fire spread and fire behavior with forecasted weather?
- If a backcountry campfire should escape in a certain location prior to a strong dry frontal passage, to where might the fire spread?
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FlamMap supports the mapping of potential fire behavior for one instant in time under various conditions. For example, it can be used to model fire behavior using 98th percentile weather. This tool is especially useful for evaluating the effectiveness of potential fuel treatment options.
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- determining most appropriate weather station(s) for monitoring fire potential for a given area
- determining the most appropriate fire weather or fire danger variable to use for various fire planning applications
- determining critical fire danger thresholds
- determining percentile weather for Rare Event Risk Assessment Program (RERAP) reports
- determining distribution of season ending events for long-term fire projections
- seasonal graphs of fire potential
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Fire Weather
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- RH
- sunrise, sunset, dawn, dusk
- wind adjustment factor for sheltered areas
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- assessment of data quality from fire weather stations
- regeneration of distributions of Fire Danger Indexes from historical fire weather observations
- ingest and analysis of user-defined indexes or other weather streams for analysis
- analysis of occurrence and persistence of user-defined fire weather/danger variable combinations
- diurnal analysis of fire weather elements
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Fuels Treatment
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Can look at various 'what if' scenarios on pre-treated and post-treated landscapes
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FlamMap can be used to model the effectiveness of proposed fuel treatments by modeling fire behavior on pre-treated and post-treated landscapes.
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Smoke Management
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FARSITE‘s Post-Frontal Combustion model simulates both flaming and smoldering fire activity behind the flaming front. This allows calculations of heat flux and emissions so that impacts such as smoke production and soil heating can be simulated. (Requires the two optional raster themes "DUFF" and "Coarse Woody".)
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Weather Inputs
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Temperature, relative humidity and cloud cover are used to calculate Fine Dead Fuel Moisture using the Fine Dead Fuel Moisture Tool within BehavePlus.
Critical Sensitivities
- Wind direction and speed
- Fuel moistures
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- simplified weather data including precipitation,
temperatures, humidities, and
weather station elevations
- simplified or gridded wind data (in special formats) including wind speeds and directions, as well as cloud cover
Critical Sensitivities
- wind speed and direction
- fuel moistures as calculated from wind and weather files
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- optional Weather (.WTR) files (highly desired for pre-conditioning fuel moistures)
- optional Wind (.WND) files (highly desired for pre-conditioning fuel moistures)
- single wind speed and direction, or,
- wind vector files created using Wind Wizard or WindNinja
Critical Sensitivities
- wind speed and direction
- fuel moistures as calculated from wind and weather files
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Historical
- standard formatted once-daily or hourly weather observations from data warehouse(s). (The '72 format (*.fwx) is a once daily observation set. The '98 format(*.fw9) is an hourly data set.)
- User defined indexes imported from a comma delimited file
Forecast
- user or statistically derived (from climatology) forecasts
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Other Inputs
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Inputs:
- terrain features:
- steepness
- elevation (in relation to weather station)
- aspect
- sheltering from wind
- Shading from overhead canopy
- fuel model selection
- (fine dead) fuel moisture content
- live herbaceous and/or live woody fuel moistures
Notes:
Elevation, aspect, and shading from overhead canopy are all used for fine dead fuel moisture calculation. Live fuel moisture inputs are critical for some of the 13 Standard Fuel models and some calculations in the Scott-Burgan fuel models.
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- Tabular data including:
- spread adjustment factor file (.adj)
- initial fuel moisture file (.fms)
- optional custom fuel model file (.fmd)
- optional conversion file (.cnv)
- spatial data in the form of a landscape file (.LCP) 10 themes derived from:
- digital Elevation Models (slope, aspect, elevation)
- fuels information often from vegetation layers and/or stand data (surface fuel model, canopy cover, canopy base height, canopy bulk density, stand height1, duff, and coarse woody2)
Notes:
- Canopy base height, canopy bulk density, and stand height are optional themes for modeling crown fire activity. Without these optional themes crown fire can not be adequately modeled.
- Duff and coarse woody are optional themes for modeling post frontal combustion. Without these themes post frontal combustion can not be modeled.
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- tabluar data including:
- Initial Fuel Moistures (.FMS) File
- optional Custom Fuel Model (.FMD)
- spacial data in the form of a landscape file (.LCP) and themes derived from:
- Digital Elevation Models (slope, aspect, elevation)
- Fuels information often from vegetation layers and/or stand data (surface fuel model, canopy cover, canopy base height, canopy bulk density, and stand height1)
Notes:
- Canopy base height, canopy bulk density, and stand height are optional themes for the landscape file.
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Weather Station Metadata
- location
- average annual precipitation
- NFDRS model parameters
Fire Occurrence
- Forest Service 5100-29 Fire Reports
- USDI, WFMI Fire Reports model parameters
- USDI, Fish & Wildlife Service reports
- User defined formatted fire reports for state or other agencies
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Key Outputs
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- fire climate statistics and graphics (daily and diurnal)
- goodness of fit statistics for correlation between fire danger and fire business
- decision points for fire planning activities
- daily list for weather and danger variables with associated fire business for the day
- short- to medium-range fire danger projections
- station metadata for individual stations or groups of stations
- lists or ESRI shapefiles of fire occurrence (single or multi-agency)
- frequency distributions of occurrence and persistence of user-defined fire weather/danger variable combinations
- percentile weather distributions for Rare Event Risk Assessment Program (RERAP) reports
- wind statistics (tables and wind roses) for daily and hourly observations.
- FARSITE weather and wind files
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Model Limitations
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- assumes point source projections in homogeneous fuels, terrain, and
weather
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- errors compound, thus, fire growth projections generally worsen with simulation time and spread distance
- model can be run using simplified wind inputs, which may produce
inaccurate results where there are complex terrain-wind interactions
- calculations that depend on fuel temperature and moisture may not be
accurate where shadows are cast by topography, precipitation varies elevationally
or spatially, or water availability is significantly is altered
- there may be a tendency for over-prediction of spread rates
- extreme fire behavior, e.g. plume dominated fires, that are affected
by feedback between the weather and fire behavior are not intended
to be simulated by FARSITE
- fire interaction with weather and fuels is not modeled
- there are limitations to the modeling of crown fire and spotting behavior
For more on model limitations see the Farsite Limitations
and Assumptions web page.
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- since FlamMap models fire behavior for a snapshot in time, it does not simulate temporal variations in fire behavior caused by weather
and diurnal fluctuations
- does not display spatial variations caused by backing or flanking fire
behavior
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- NFDRS is based on same deterministic fire model as Behave/FARSITE/FlamMap so NFDRS ratings are relative, not absolute.
- fire business relationships can only be broadly defined within a rating area
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Application Limitations
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- many iterations are typically required to account for variability in
conditions
- live fuel moisture is difficult to represent
- must be interpreted by trained, experienced fire manager
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- FARSITE is designed for use by trained, professional wildland fire planners
and managers familiar with fuels, weather, topography, wildfire situations,
and the associated concepts and terminology.
- users may need the support of a geographic information system (GIS) analyst to use FARSITE because it requires spatial coincident landscape raster information to run
- although LANDFIRE fuels data are now available on-line for the western U.S. These data should be carefully evaluated prior to use for modeling fire behavior
- live fuel moisture values are critical for accurate modeling of fire behavior (especially when using the Scott-Burgan fuel models), but these moisture values are difficult to characterize
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- FlamMap is designed for use by trained, professional wildland fire planners
and managers familiar with fuels, weather, topography, wildfire situations,
and the associated concepts and terminology
- users may need the support of a geographic information system (GIS)
analyst to use FlamMap because it requires spatial coincident landscape
raster information to run
- although LANDFIRE fuels data are now available on-line for the western U.S., these data should be carefully evaluated prior to use for modeling fire behavior
- live fuel moisture values are critical but difficult to represent
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- does not automatically ingest forecasts
- requires external data from agency data stores
- experience required for interpretation of goodness of fit statistical output
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