Storm Type and Prognostic Soundings

The Use of Observed and Model Data for Prognostic Soundings to Assess Changes in Buoyancy and Shear [W4.1]

Introduction

This Instructional Component consists of three unique case studies, which demonstrate various methods of using observed or model data to assess changes in buoyancy and shear in the convective storm environment. Forecasting severe thunderstorm type (tornadoes, large hail, and/or damaging winds) depends largely on accurate assessment and evaluation of the interrelationship of these two parameters. Correct evaluation of the mesoscale severe thunderstorm environment (which includes identifying important features such as boundaries, etc.) leads to better anticipation of the type of severe thunderstorm event that is expected. Proper anticipation of the expected severe thunderstorm type consequently results in improved warnings and forecasts.

In these three demonstration cases, we will show how modified upper air soundings with accompanying hodographs, in addition to surface, profiler, radar, and model data can all be used to alter the initial pre-conceived forecast storm type.

The first case (Mesoscale Aspects of the 05 June 1997 Severe Weather Event) focuses on analyzing changes in the mesoscale/synoptic scale environment using surface mesonet observations and radar data. Identification of these changes resulted in a re-assessment of expected storm type.

The second case (Evolution of the Mesoscale Environment and Prediction of the Dry Microburst of 08 June 1996) pertains to microburst prediction and detection. Specifically, it will illustrate utilizing thermodynamic characteristics of proximity upper air soundings to modify expectations of severe weather type for an event that occurred last year in Utah.

The third case (Evolution of the 02 July 1997 Severe Weather Event ) involves examining a variety of mesoscale (and synoptic scale) changes in the vertical wind shear profiles which subsequently affected the modality of convection prior to (and during) a severe weather outbreak in the Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley region.

A survey intended to evaluate the effectiveness of this web-based instructional component is linked below. Please take a few minutes to fill in responses to the questions.

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