The educational materials on the right have been selected as being of specific interest to the forecast team for the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. The Olympics will be held August 2nd through 24th, 2008.
Other Relevant Links:
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Recommended Materials
Some or all of these training modules may be of interest to you as you prepare to forecast for the 2008 Summer Olympics.
Convection:
Description:
This module discusses the role of wind shear in the structure and evolution of convective storms. Using the concept of horizontal vorticity, the module demonstrates how shear enhances uplift, leading to longer-lived supercell and multicell storms. The module also explores the role of shear in the development of mesoscale convective systems, including bow echoes and squall lines. Most of the material in this module previously appeared in the COMET modules developed with Dr. Morris Weisman. This version includes a concise summary for quick reference and a final exam to test your knowledge. The module comes with audio narration, rich graphics, and a companion print version.
Objectives:
Terminal Objectives
By the end of this module you will be able to describe the influence that vertical wind shear has on convective storm behavior
Enabling Objectives
By the end of this module you will be able to do the following:
1. Describe how and where interaction between a thunderstorm outflow (the cold pool) and the environmental wind shear lead to enhanced uplift and formation of new convective cells
2. Describe the vertical wind shear conditions that maximize the uplift along the downshear edge of the cold pool
3. Describe the origin of updraft tilt in a convective cell
4. Describe the different vertical shear characteristics for supercell storms and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs)
Estimated time to complete: 60 min
Description:
This module presents current conceptual models of several MCS types and provides explanations for the structures and behavior of MCSs based on the physical processes underlying their evolution. An understanding of the physical processes and conceptual models of MCSs will help forecasters to predict the most likely locations of severe weather within existing systems and to forecast the longevity, areal extent, and path of the system.
Accompanied by conceptual animations, numerical simulations, and case studies, Mesoscale Convective Systems: Squall Lines and Bow Echoes presents strategies with which the forecaster can identify the potential for long-lived MCSs and attendant severe weather.
Estimated time to complete: 4-6 h
(Note: Requires Real® Audio Player)
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Description:
This Webcast features NWS forecaster Matthew J. Bunkers presenting the results of a study originally presented at the 19th AMS Conference on Severe Local Storms and published in the February 2000 issue of the AMS journal Weather and Forecasting. It is delivered as a streaming audio lesson with accompanying text and graphics.
In this presentation Mr. Bunkers presents a statistically superior method for predicting supercell motion regardless of the shape or location of the shear profile on the hodograph plot. The method is a modification of the method presented by Dr. Morris Weisman in the COMET Program CD module, Anticipating Convective Storm Structure and Evolution, and was developed based on 225 actual supercell events.
Estimated time to complete: 30 min
Heavy Rain and Flooding:
Description:
According to NOAA’s National Weather Service, a flash flood is a life-threatening flood that begins within 6 hours--and often within 3 hours--of a causative event. That causative event can be intense rainfall, the failure of a dam, levee, or other structure that is impounding water, or the sudden rise of water level associated with river ice jams.
The “Flash Flood Processes” module offers an introduction to the distinguishing features of flash floods, the underlying hydrologic influences and the use of flash flood guidance (FFG) products. Through use of rich illustrations, animations, and interactions, this module explains the differences between flash floods and general floods and examines the hydrologic processes that impact flash flooding risk. In addition, it provides an introduction to the use of flash flood guidance (FFG) products including derivation from ThreshR and rainfall-runoff curves as well as current strengths and limitations.
Objectives:
Define a flash flood:
• Distinguish a flash flood from a general flood
• Identify the different physical processes leading to flash floods
• Recognize the connection between precipitation intensity and runoff characteristics associated with flash floods
Explain hydrologic influences on flash floods:
• Apply information about the runoff processes to the flash flood problem
• Explain why certain soil textures and soil profiles may result in greater flash flood risks
• Which physical characteristics make a basin more prone to flash flooding
• How quickly and frequently flash floods can occur in urban environments
• How fires and deforestation impact the flash flood risk
Understand key issues underlying the use of flash flood guidance (FFG) products:
• The definition of flash flood guidance
• How threshold runoff (ThreshR) and rainfall-runoff curves are used to derive flash flood guidance
• How flash flood guidance is generated for different spatial entities (headwater, county, gridded) and time durations
• Recognize when and how limitations can impact forecasts
Estimated time to complete: 1 h
Description:
Part of the Numerical Weather Prediction Professional Development Series, this module explores how NWP models handle precipitation and cloud processes through parameterizations and/or explicit methods, with an emphasis on how a model's treatment of these processes affects its ability to depict and forecast precipitation and other related forecast variables.
The subject matter expert for this module is Dr. Ralph Petersen of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environmental Modeling Center (NCEP/EMC).
Estimated time to complete: 3-6 h
Description:
This module features an audio and visual tour of sites affected by the Fort Collins, Colorado urban flood that occurred on 28 July 1997. The tour is led by Matthew Kelsch and includes eyewitness accounts of that night's events from John Weaver. This interactive virtual field trip module summarizes many of the important common aspects of flash floods occurring in urban environments.
Estimated time to complete: 60 min
Modeling and Dispersion:
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Description:
Impact of Model Structure & Dynamics, part of the Numerical Weather Prediction Professional Development Series and the NWP Distance Learning Course, provides operationally significant information about model type, horizontal resolution, vertical coordinate systems, vertical resolution, and domain and boundary conditions, with an emphasis on how each aspect can affect a model's ability to depict and forecast weather.
The subject matter expert for this module is Dr. Ralph Petersen of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environmental Modeling Center (NCEP/EMC).
Estimated time to complete: 3-5 h
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Description:
This module describes model parameterizations of sub-surface, boundary-layer,and free atmospheric processes, such as surface snow processes, soil characteristics, vegetation, evapotranspiration, PBL processes and parameterizations, and trace gases, and their interaction with the radiative transfer process. It specifically addresses how models treat these physical processes and how they can influence forecasts of sensible weather elements.
Objectives:
Working through the material will help you to
• Develop a basic understanding of how radiation and associated processes are emulated in NWP models
• Understand when model physics are most important to the model forecast (versus model dynamics)
• Understand that model physics are specifically tuned to work best in certain situations and specific models
• Understand that model physics parameterizations affect other parameterizations, model dynamics, and data assimilation, which may result in feedbacks
• Identify impacts of model physics and their errors on model forecasts both at and around the forecast location
• Identify effects that are smaller than the model can emulate (for example, the resolution of surface characteristics is coarse but real effects occur at fine resolution)
Estimated time to complete: 1.5 h
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Description:
This module provides insights on how to best use WRF mesoscale model guidance in the forecast process. Using two cases in southwest Asia where AFWA WRF is currently in use, it examines improvements offered by the WRF for forecasting fronts, topographic impacts, precipitation type, and hazards to aviation. The module also discusses some mesoscale model limitations, and offers strategies for transitioning between using mesoscale and global NWP guidance for medium-range forecasts, even when the models differ significantly.
Objectives:
1. Apply knowledge of the unique strengths of high resolution NWP models to guide forecast decisions in the following situations:
1.1 When topography (e.g., elevation change, coastlines, complex terrain) impacts the weather event
1.2 When frontal structure depiction is critical to the forecast
1.3 When forecasting precipitation type
1.4 When forecasting hazards to aviation (e.g., icing, turbulence, visibility)
2. Identify limitations of high-resolution NWP models, and anticipate situations where those limitations will impact the validity of the model guidance. For example, mesoscale models do well in forecasting the character and organization of convection, but not in forecasting timing and location.
3. For forecasts beyond approximately 48 hours, apply knowledge of NWP models, recent model performance, and current trends in the atmospheric evolution to determine a general strategy for transitioning between the use of mesoscale and global NWP guidance, particularly when they differ significantly.
Estimated time to complete: 2.5 h
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Description:
A webcast presentation by Dr. Timothy Spangler (Director of the COMET Program and a former air quality consultant). This 25-minute lecture provides an overview of the basics of dispersion, the effects of different atmospheric conditions on dispersion, and how dispersion is commonly modeled after an accidental release of a hazardous material.
Objectives:
- Define what is meant by the terms “dispersion” and “exposure”
- List the main factors that determine dispersion and exposure
- Differentiate between the 5 main plume types
- Explain the factors involved in plume rise and why plume rise is important
- Discuss the main components involved in calculating concentration
- Describe the differences between a Gaussian model, a Gradient Transport Model, and a Puff Model
- List important situations in which common dispersion models may not provide good concentration estimates
Estimated time to complete: 25 min
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Description:
Presented by Juanzhen Sun
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Earth & Sun Systems Laboratory
This 61-minute talk by Jenny Sun is presented in six sections: 1) Introduction and Background, 2) Fundamentals of Data Assimilation, 3) Assimilation of Radar-based Winds, 4) Assimilation of Radar-based Winds with 4D-Var, 5) Assimilation of Z and Derived Rainwater, and 6) Summary and Future Challenges. This presentation provides an excellent discussion of the state of the art and remaining challenges related to atmospheric science data assimilation into NWP models with an emphasis on radar observations.
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Visibility/Fog:
Description:
This is the second module in the Mesoscale Meteorology Primer series. This module starts with a forecast scenario that occurs during a winter radiation fog event in the Central Valley of California. After that, a conceptual section covers the physical processes of radiation fog through its life cycle. Operational sections addressing fog detection and forecasting conclude the module
Objectives:
At the end of the module you should be able to do the following things:
With Regard to the Preconditioning Environment:
• Identify key conditions and ingredients necessary for development of radiation fog
• Discriminate between large-scale low-level environments that are favorable and unfavorable for development of radiation fog
• Describe the sequence of key surface and boundary layer processes that prepare the low-level environment for development of radiation fog
• Demonstrate an understanding of how surface cooling dries the micro-boundary layer and prevents low-level condensation from being deposited onto the surface
• Rank various surface and surface cover types in terms of the relative speed with which low-level air in contact with them will reach saturation
With Regard to Initiation and Growth:
• Identify levels at which radiative cooling is most active at various stages of the fog initiation and growth process
• Demonstrate an understanding of the effects that various condensation nuclei types and concentrations have on fog formation
• Sequence the key processes and events that occur during formation of a layer of radiation fog
• Demonstrate an understanding of how the fog-top inversion is created by the fog itself
• Demonstrate an understanding of influences that heat flux from the surface have on a fog layer during its initiation and growth
With Regard to Maintenance Phase:
• Describe key processes that balance one another to allow a fog layer to maintain a relatively constant depth
• Identify conditions in and above a fog-top layer that support continued condensate production
• Identify conditions in and above a fog-top layer that restrict further deepening
• Demonstrate an understanding of the effects that various condensation nuclei types and concentrations have on fog maintenance
• Demonstrate an understanding of the effects that introduction of an overlying cloud layer have on a mature fog layer at the surface
• Demonstrate an understanding of influences that heat flux from the surface have on a mature fog layer
• Identify the typical level of a fog-top inversion
• Demonstrate an understanding of how the fog-top inversion is maintained by various processes at and above the top of the fog layer
With Regard to Dissipation Phase:
• Identify key processes that contribute to the dissipation of a fog layer
• Apply a droplet settling rate calculation to predict the time required for a given depth of fog layer to settle to the ground in the absence of any new condensate production
• Demonstrate an understanding of how radiative heating contributes to dissipation of a fog layer
• Demonstrate an understanding of how turbulent mixing contributes to dissipation of a fog layer
• Demonstrate an understanding of how changes in low-level winds can contribute to dissipation of a fog layer
• Demonstrate an understanding of how introduction of an overlying cloud layer can contribute to dissipation of a fog layer
With Regard to Detecting Fog:
• Identify surface observations that show atmospheric conditions conducive to radiation fog
• Identify soundings that show atmospheric conditions conducive to radiation fog
• Identify fog in satellite images
• Describe the limitations of infrared satellite images for detecting radiation fog
With Regard to Forecasting Fog:
• Describe the diurnal cycle of radiation fog occurrence
• Demonstrate and understanding of the strong seasonal dependence of radiation fog occurrence in at least two localities
• Describe which forecast products best show the atmospheric conditions conducive to radiation fog
• Describe the limitations of numerical forecast models in predicting radiation fog
Estimated time to complete: 2 h
Description:
This module deals with identifying the characteristics of radiation versus advection fog events, determining which process is dominating, and applying that understanding when making ceiling and visibility forecasts. A forecast approach using a decision tree is also discussed. This decision tree outlines the basic steps involved in applying a thorough forecast approach to fog and stratus events. The module is based on live teletraining sessions offered in 2003 as part of the Distance Learning Aviation Course 1 (DLAC1) on Fog and Stratus Forecasting.
Objectives:
1. Describe the differing processes that lead to radiation fog and advection fog
2. State the two key ingredients for the formation of fog or low stratus: increasing moisture in the boundary layer or decreasing boundary layer temperatures.
3. Properly identify which processes are dominating a particular fog or low stratus event. You can do this by:
• Examining the characteristics of the processes involved,
• Examining the low-level factors that are influencing the event, and
• Comparing these to the known characteristics, processes, and factors that distinguish a radiation event from an advective event.
Estimated time to complete: 2 h
Description:
In order to assess whether a fog or stratus event is possible, you must evaluate the synoptic-scale influences that will drive the local conditions. In this module, we examine several common synoptic situations to understand the processes involved in fog or low stratus development. Most of these are forced primarily by advective or dynamic processes (although radiation does play a role). A more detailed discussion of radiation processes is contained in the Radiation Fog module. This module is part of the Distance Learning Course 1: Forecasting Fog and Low Stratus.
Objectives:
• Identify the large-scale and local conditions that support the development, maintenance, and dissipation of fog/stratus events
• Identify several synoptic regimes that can result in advection or radiation fog and the processes that contribute to fog formation, maintenance, and dissipation for each
Estimated time to complete: 2-3 h
Description:
Local and mesoscale influences can make or break your fog or stratus forecast. Influences of local water bodies, terrain, vegetation, soil characteristics, and coastal features on the lower atmosphere can play a vital role in the development, duration, and intensity of these events. As part of the Distance Learning Course 1: Forecasting Fog and Low Stratus, this module examines several of these influences and discusses how they enhance or inhibit a fog or stratus event.
Objectives:
• Identify three local factors that can enhance fog or stratus development and be able to explain why
• Identify and describe the processes external to the boundary layer that influence duration, intensity, and dissipation
• Identify and describe the processes internal to the boundary layer that influence duration, intensity, and dissipation
Estimated time to complete: 2-3 h
Description:
This module discusses how to apply various observational data and remote sensing tools such as satellite, METARS, soundings, profilers, radar, and model analyses to diagnose the potential for fog and/or low stratus. Various forecast tools (such as model forecast fields, forecast soundings, and BUFKIT) used to assess fog and/or low stratus potential onset, intensity, and duration are also examined. This module is part of the Distance Learning Course 1: Forecasting Fog and Low Stratus.
Objectives:
• Apply various observational data and remote sensing tools such as satellite, METARS, soundings, profilers, radar, and model analyses to diagnose the potential for fog and/or low stratus
• Apply various forecast tools such as model forecast fields, forecast soundings, and BUFKIT to assess fog and/or low stratus potential onset, intensity, and duration
Estimated time to complete: 3 h
Marine Meteorology:
If you are forecasting for a coastal marine environment, you may be interested in:
Description:
This is the fourth module in our series on open water waves. As deep-water
waves approach the coastline, they encounter shallower water and begin to
interact with the sea floor while evolving into shallow water waves. This
module uses an interactive wave calculator to look at a variety of shallow-water wave behaviors, including shoaling, refraction, reflection, breaking, attenuation, and coastal
run-up and set-up. All are important considerations when forecasting for
small craft and other recreational interests in the near-shore
environment.
Objectives:
By the end of this module, you will have learned:
* What transformations waves undergo as they move from deep water into shallow water
* How to describe and predict the effects of shallow-water processes such as shoaling, refraction, and attenuation
* How to identify and distinguish between the various breaker types, matching them with their corresponding bathymetry
* How to predict the effects of interactions between waves and currents
* The difference between wave run-up and set-up, and how to estimate them
Estimated time to complete: 1.5 h
Description:
This module is intended for experienced forecasters moving from a land-based area to a coastal or Great Lakes region where both over-land and over-water forecast areas exist. This module highlights the differences between marine boundary layer and terrestrial boundary layer winds. The experienced forecaster is relatively familiar with the boundary layer over land and the associated implications for the wind field. Using this as a base, the module compares this known quantity with the lesser-known processes that occur in the marine boundary layer. Three major topics that influence marine boundary layer winds are discussed: stability within the boundary layer, isallobaric influence, and the effects of convection and tropical cyclones.
Objectives:
• Highlight the major differences between boundary-layer winds in the marine and over-land environments.
• Examine surface wind differences in stable and unstable boundary layers.
• Examine how the stability profile changes seasonally and diurnally.
• Assess the impact of isallobaric wind effects in a marine setting.
• Identify the main impacts of severe convection on marine winds.
• Recognize known model biases in predicting marine boundary layer winds and what situations require the forecaster to make adjustments.
Estimated time to complete: 2 h
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